Background: The Russia-Georgia Conflict

Questions:
Why are they Fighting?
The Possible Consequences





On August 8th 2008 the Russian army moved into the area of South Ossetia in the Caucasus region. South Ossetia is a part of Georgia that wants to break away. The current round of fighting had been going on for at least a week between the S. Ossetians and Georgian forces before the Russian Army moved into South Ossetia in force. This is not a new conflict in a region of the world where conflict is common. However, this time it could be different and could trigger a full-scale regional war.

A look into the background of the region and the conflict would be the logical place to start.





Readers can see from the map above that there is no shortage of ethnic groups in the region. This is one of the reasons why the area is no stranger to conflict.

The South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions separated from the central Georgian government during a conflict in the early 1990's. There is no love lost between Moscow and Tbilisi because Georgia wants closer ties to the West (NATO membership being a part of that) and Russia gives political/military and economic support to the breakaway regions.

The Russians are claiming that they moved military forces in South Ossetia to protect their citizens from attack by Georgian forces. This is a smokescreen of BS, pure and simple. The Russians are trying to reclaim their great power status. They don't like a former region of the USSR not only going independent but also preferring NATO membership instead of closer ties with Moscow. The second reason is one of energy routes to the western world. Here is a map of pipeline routes in the region:




The map above highlight the importance of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. This is a line that does not move through Russian territory. The Russians don't like the situation because they have no control over this pipeline; the Russians have already bombed this pipeline. If the original reason for Russian forces to be sent into South Ossetia was for the "Humanitarian reasons" they claimed, then why are they hitting a pipeline inside Georgia proper?

What are the true Russian motivations behind this action?

First, they want to remind all the now-independent countries who used to be part of the old USSR not to wander too far away or consider displeasing Moscow. NATO membership for these countries in not in the Russian interest, nor is something that is likely to be tolerated.

Second , Moscow has always had an inferiority complex. Beating up on a small independent country is a way to show the world that Moscow wants respect. This move by Russia had to be planned long ago. The best proof of this is the speed that the army units moved into the area. Ralph Peters provides background, plus a 'big picture' look at what these events in Raping Georgia, Russia Invades an American Ally

The military comparison between Georgia and Russia is truly a bully vs. underdog story. But it isn't totally bleak for the Georgians. They have been training to Western standards for a couple years now. [Georgia Security & Stability Operations (Georgia SSOP)]

In fact, since the middle of July there has been a multi-national exercise being conducted in Georgia that has included US forces: Immediate Response 08

[See also: Operation Immediate Response begins in Country of Georgia]

The Georgian military is fighting on home soil. They are fighting for their nation. They know the land and hopefully can use that knowledge to their benefit. The Russian military today is not the Red Army of World War 2, in fact it is not even the Red army of the Cold War. Today's Russian forces are badly-treated conscripts, not volunteers. This means they probably don't even want to be in the military, much less getting ordered into a invasion. Plus, there are some serious corruption issues in the Russian military.

Even though Russia is a oil-producer/exporter and has enjoyed good economic times from the rise in energy prices, surprisingly, not a whole lot of this money has been spent on the Russian military. A look at the TV footage of the conflict, one sees a lot of older Russian vehicles. But many in the Russian invasion force are badly-educated/trained and poorly-treated conscripts who have a hard time using more modern equipment.

This could devolve into a really bad situation in any number of ways. If any U.S. forces in-country for the above training exercise or the new forces arriving to provide humanitarian assistance get caught in the line of fire by the Russians, it could get ugly. The Ukrainians (another former Soviet republic that has no love for Russia) are talking about not allowing the Russian navy ships taking part in the Georgian conflict return to their harbors in Ukrainian territory.

Bottom line: if the USA and the West truly believe in democracy and the rule of law, they need to step up with one voice and tell Russia this won't be tolerated, period. If we don't, Russia will continue to regain control of their former regions using every tool at their disposal. This could result in a frosty relationship between Russia and the West.

One Cold War was enough, the world doesn't need Part 2.

by CDWT
images:
* www.globalsecurity.org
* www.colorado.edu
* ttp://europe.theoildrum.com


If you have any thoughts/comments/etc feel free to contact me at chicagodudewhotrades@gmail.com

Venezuela's Military at "High Alert", Embassy Closed - Are They Just Moves to Distract Opponents?

Full Military Mobilization
Embassy with Columbia Closed



History's lessons aren't lost on Hugo Chavez.

Venezuelan strongman and president, Chavez formally ordered the country's armed forces to "high alert" status.

Chavez also ordered the closing of Venezuela's embassy in Colombia and the mobilization of the nation's armed forces to the Columbia border.

At various times when times are tough domestically, authoritarian rulers have distracted domestic opponents and rallied support of wavering populations with external threats--both real and imagined.

And what caused the Venezuelan president to call out the troops?

"We are at a state of alertness. I am putting Venezuela on alert and we will support Ecuador," Chavez told his regular Sunday broadcast Alo Presidente. "Defense minister: move 10 battalions to the Colombia-Venezuela border. Tank battalions, military aircraft: deploy!" he ordered.

So it wasn't trouble at home that caused all this military motion?

Well, whatever it is, it seems that there's been any military challenge from Ciolumbia, a country that is battling narco-lords, guerrillas and problems from the left and right.

But that's Chavez's story and he's sticking to it.

During the same broadcast, Chavez strongly condemned the killing of Luis Edgar Devia, better known by the alias Raul Reyes, who was the de facto foreign minister for the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), that nation's largest armed rebel group.

The Colombian army killed Devia in Ecuadorian territory. Ecuador responded with a protest letter sent via diplomatic channels.

Maybe the military's mobilized out of sympathy?

Chavez told the broadcast audience that he had received a phone call from Ecuador's president, Rafael Correa, in which Correa said he had recalled Ecuador's ambassador to Colombia and ordered the mobilization of troops to Ecuador's northern border with Colombia.

As was previously stated, Chavez has been battling opponents of his rollback of Venezuelan democracy. Street demonstrations are common.

But it's nothing a fully-mobilized military can't handle.

by Mondoreb
image: file
Source: Venezuela put military on high alert



DBKP.com - Bigger, Better!.
Death by 1000 Papercuts Front Page.

US and China: Signs of a Coming War or Dynamic Capitalism?

We're never ones to discount warnings: Winston Churchill was our hero. However, the warnings of a coming U.S. war with China continue.

The warnings about war take, in the main, two forms: military and economic. Zachary Hubbard, a retired Army officer, wrote in August about the possibility of military war.

Hubbard now looks at an economic one presaging any military actions.

The war on terror grabs headlines, but there are far greater threats to America than terrorism. Conditions are ripe for a shift in the balance of global power, perhaps in the next four to five years. When it occurs, America will no longer be the dominant economic force on the planet. As our economic power wanes, our political and military power will follow suit.

The Roman philosopher Seneca said, “If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favorable.” His wisdom applies to America’s economic situation today.

Americans must choose a new economic destination and change course soon or we stand to lose much of our national power.

If we fail to act, the world could well end up with a four-way competition among the European Union, a China-dominated Asia, a global oil cartel dominated by Russia and a nuclear-armed Iran, and a U.S.-led North American Union.

Hubbard goes on to list the signs of distress in the United States' economy. He's not the only one to point these out; there's no end of stories alerting of a U.S. economic slide.

Indications of America’s waning economic power are numerous. A mortgage crisis caused by foolhardy subprime lending practices has thousands of Americans at risk of losing everything. Many financial institutions caught up in the scheme are also in trouble.

American consumer debt is at an all-time high and may cause the next major financial crisis.

The Baltimore Sun published an article on Oct. 10 titled, “Credit card debt is ready to blow.” According to the Sun, the financial industry is preparing for major defaults on the credit card debt held by Americans today, which exceeds $500 billion.

General Motors, once a global symbol of American industrial might, has suffered record losses recently and is facing financial disaster. Ford apparently has similar woes.

America’s manufacturing base is shrinking, as U.S. companies continue to ship manufacturing jobs overseas. Meanwhile, China is experiencing record economic growth funded largely by American consumers and U.S. government debt.

Failed energy policies could soon have Americans facing $5 per gallon gasoline. Looming energy shortages threaten manufacturing and other sectors. Every U.S. president since the Arab oil embargo of 1973-74 has failed to exhibit leadership in addressing America’s energy needs. Consequently, today we must buy oil from a rogue cartel dominated by Middle Eastern tyrants who hate us.

The U.S. dollar has tanked on foreign markets. Exchange rates are at an all-time low against the Euro and even the Canadian dollar. Iran has shifted its hard currency reserves to the Euro. China is threatening to do the same. Such a move by China, which holds more than $1 trillion in U.S. debt, would be devastating to the U.S. economy.

After listing some fixes, the writer declares the problems go deeper than just dollars and cents.

Our problems are not purely economic. They reach to the very core of America’s national identity. Many politicians talk about repairing America’s reputation, but it’s not just our reputation that is broken.

The way we do business on Capitol Hill needs fixing. American voters must redefine the country economically by facing up to exploding personal and national debt, our disappearing manufacturing base and our dangerous foreign oil dependency. Only then may we hope to preserve our political and military might.

If party politicians continue to skirt these problems, America may suffer the same fate as the vanished democracies that preceded it.

Even the glory of Rome faded. Why should we expect our fate to be any different if we fail to tackle our problems?

Zachary Hubbard is a retired Army officer and freelance writer residing in Upper Yoder Township. He is a member of The Tribune-Democrat Reader Advisory Committee.

America’s reign as world’s economic king in peril

As we stated at the beginning, we're never one to discount warnings. It's hard to not join Hubbard in his concern. However, it would do well to keep in mind the inherent strengths and depth of the United States economy.

That doesn't mean that a close eye shouldn't be kept on various economic indicators. But the demise of big industries never much caused much worry in these quarters.

Capitalism is dynamic: today's ailing K-Mart, was yesterday's number one retailer K-Mart. Who knows where today's number one retailer Wal-Mart will be in 20 years. While warnings of demise should be kept in mind, warnings of capitalism's dynamic nature should also be heeded.

Two of the big employers in the late 1800s were buggy-whip makers and factories using human cigar rollers.

by Mondoreb
images: prisonplanet; slate]




Death by 1000 Papercuts Front Page.

Democrat Congress Takes a Vacation, Military Funding Takes it On the Chin

[Above]: Democrat leaders go on vacation; troops abandoned in the field

Congressional Democrats demonstrated what they do best: nothing.

Well, vacation is a break from work and that's what they did. Of course, it's hard to tell from their list of accomplishments(sic) when this Congress is in session or when it's recessed.

Normally, the fact that Congress is not in session is to be applauded: if America needs one thing less than a terrorist attack, it's another law. The "there ought to be a law" mentality is perfect for both trial lawyers and those to lazy to think of alternatives or unintended consequences of new laws. Congress not in session equals no laws being written.

But this Congress has left a standing U.S. Army in the field, in need of funds. While members of Congress are out pursuing votes, the military will out pursuing funds. More on this latest example of how this Congress supports the troops from Wake Up America's Congress Goes on Vacation and Abandons the Troops:

They failed in their 41st attempt to force an immediate withdrawal and they went on vacation without passing the bill to fund our troops in the field, even after Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned them what the ramifications of such actions would do to our military.

Basically they are determined to punish our troops for doing the unthinkable and succeeding in Iraq, which even the die hard liberal media outlets are blasting across their front pages because the progress is undeniable.

Next time you a Democrat leader uses the word 'historic' in relation to this Congress, give them their due.

It would be the first time an army, victorious on the field of battle, has been de-funded by it's own country in an effort to reverse the victory.

by Mondoreb




Death by 1000 Papercuts Front Page.